Shallow Analysis For Cunning Minds

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It is completely understandable for someone who says she was wrong about nearly everything to think that her bosses, readers, and the world at large want to hear what she thinks about the coming election. Megan McArdle:

It’s fashionable for columnists to write “I was wrong” pieces, and if this work by Autor et al holds, this will go down as one of the four things I was most mistaken about: the Iraq War, the severity of the financial crisis that followed Lehman’s collapse, the rise of Donald Trump, and now, China trade.

McArdle is too modest; she has been wrong about so much more, from cooking to sociology, from home remodeling to using the mail box. Even blog posts can't go on forever, though, so she confines herself to just a few mistakes. But McArdle is contractually obligated to come up with something-or-other every few days, she sees politics as a win-lose game that she wants to win, and nobody cares if she is wrong anyway,  so she graces us with her brilliant, highly-paid analysis. McArdle knows Clinton will lose, just like conservatives knew Obama would lose against Romney. How could she possibly be wrong?

Six reasons why Clinton will lose:

1. The Iowa caucus proves what I said all along. Clinton is a terrible campaigner.

Of course McArdle links to herself. Here is her exhaustive analysis of Clinton's campaign abilities:

She's not a particularly good candidate. She has never won a tough election. In fact, she's only won in deep blue New York, which is not exactly playing against the varsity. On the stump, she has nowhere near the appeal of her husband, or Barack Obama. She's a totally fine speaker, but she is not inspiring, and she does not come off as warm; her tone ranges from "well coached" to "annoyed." You might call her the Mitt Romney of the Democrats.

McArdle does not find her appealing, inspiring, or warm, therefore Democrats will not vote for her.
Fait accompli!

2. Donald Trump is getting voters to the polls.

That's everyone's take-away, because that's what the data says. McArdle says that's not good news for Republicans because Trump is also getting people out to vote against him; he did lose after all.

3. Young 'uns are feeling the Bern.

Thank you, Captain Obvious, as the commercial says. McArdle muses that Democratic youth are either greedy or stupid, a happy thought that must keep her warm while being forced to read statistics that say conservatives are authoritarian, low-information voters.

4. Sanders may not win, but he's definitely shaping the race.

Hmmm. It seems that candidates lean to the left (or right) according to the campaign rhetoric of their competition. Stunning!

5. There's a lot of stuff you can indeed say, even though conventional wisdom said you couldn't.

She'll keep that in mind.

6.Marco Rubio has momentum, and looks likely to be the establishment candidate from this point forward.

Marcomentum!! Third place is the winner because Trump won't last and the other guy is Ted Cruz. Also, young Hispanic Republicans are so going to beat those old white Democrats!

Yeah. Nothing will excite the Republican base more than the idea of voting for the sons of Hispanic immigrants, especially after their talking Trump doll was taken away from them. They just can't wait to vote against white people.

I picked the wrong time to give up drinking.