Megan McArdle During Implementation: A rocky roll out proves Obamacare will never work.
Megan McArdle Now: Sure, Obamacare seems to be working now but it won't work in the future.
Compared to last year, Obamacare's 2015 open enrollment is a boring story -- no spectacular IT failures, no politically charged policy cancellations. And as Obamacare wends to the end of its second open-enrollment period, it would seem that we should know more about the shape of the final program. What have we learned so far?No doubt that murkiness will spiral into a death darkness, or whatever doom-and-gloom bullshit she comes up with next.
The answer is "less than you'd think." Here's what we do know so far. There have been about 7.8 million confirmed enrollments or renewals in qualified health plans. Vermont is not going to have single payer. More insurers are entering many markets, but some insurers have already run into trouble. Data on the uninsured is somewhat scarce, but my best guess, based on the Gallup numbers, is that about 4 percent of the population has gotten insured since Obamacare started, or roughly 10 million to 12 million people.
On the other hand, much about the future of the Affordable Care Act remains murky.