Atlas Shrugged: The Mocking

Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Megan Lies To Herself

Megan McArdle's dilemma:

[...I]f [housing] prices stay high, where is the money coming from to support them? Well, from people like me, who do not currently have a home to sell, but would like to acquire one in the not-terribly distant future.


McArdle says the reason for the housing bubble was supply and demand. That is a lie. A much more accurate reason (among many) is that Greenspan set interest rates so low that he created a housing bubble. But if McArdle acknowledged this she would have to acknowledge that conservative economic principles just blew up the economy, and that would mean McArdle was wrong. She can't be wrong--she was born a little better than the common folk, a little smarter and much better educated. So she lies.

McArdle's solution:

To the extent that there is an argument for a housing bailout, I think it rests not on keeping prices high, or keeping people in houses that they could just barely afford when they bought them (or after they refinanced them), but on preventing the price decline from crippling the future financial viability of either the borrowers or the lenders*. [By the way, there's nothing at the end of that asterisk.]

That's the logic behind my lunatic plan--cut the losses to the lenders to the loss on the underlying collateral; keep the housing decline from crippling homeowners without awarding them subsidized housing in exchange for their financial illiteracy.


In other words, let house prices fall to Megan-affordable levels without harming the banks, an impossible feat.

Friday, May 30, 2008

The state of the Snark.

It was graduation week here at the Snark, with assorted kids moving up from cabin boy to ensign and from ensign to whatever ensigns do next. But pirates never rest, so let's see what's up. Have we hit the housing bottom?

That second wave of adjustable-mortgage resets won’t even begin until next
year. And as you can see from the chart above, the quantity dwarfs the amount
that caused Wall Street, the Fed and Congress to vomit in unison already this
year. [We thank Agora Financial for sharing this with us http://www.agorafinancial.com/]The Prime Mortgages can include the
ARMs, and there were many, many ARMS originated between 2002 and 2006 that are
hanging on the edge of the "reset precipice". Then in the next 3 years the many
option ARMS and "Alt-A" ARMs (Alt-A loans are the no document "liar loans"
that were originated by the millions during the housing and mortgage bubble).
These resets and expired, low interest rate Alt-A ARMs will peak in 2012...oh my
God, 2012!
This indicates that we have at least 3 more years of the
mortgage meltdown and the housing wipeout to deal with and that is not a
promising indicator of the health of the US, British, and
Canadian economies in the the foreseeable future.

Ouch. Well, at least we don't have to worry about more wars.

Russian Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of
Geopolitical Sciences, said last week the Pentagon was planning to deliver a
massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future."I have
no doubt there will be an operation, or rather an aggressive action against
Iran," Ivashov said, commenting on media reports about U.S. planned operation
against Iran, codenamed Operation Bite.A new U.S. carrier battle group has been
dispatched to the Gulf. The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around
80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet
fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for
the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December
2006. The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.

Aww, nuts. Better buy more toilet paper. And fill the car with gas.

For the last ten days in a row, pump prices set new records. And with
inventories of gas at a new five-year low, refiners are having trouble keeping
up with demand.

I remember the 1970s. They aren't worth revisting. Maybe I can go to the movies and forget my troubles. It'll be a relief to get away from Sex and the City reruns. I can't stand that self-delusional, self-indulgent airhead.

Aiiiiigh!